Climate Change and Tourism: Basic Notions
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) asserts that human activities are responsible for the dramatic increase in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) in the atmosphere, resulting in anthropogenic climate change that is underway. Evidence of this is seen in records of the world’s average temperature, which show an increase of approximately 0.76°C over the last century and a half, with an expected increase of 1.8°C to 4.0°C by the end of this century.
Evidence of rising carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere, increasing global average temperatures, and rising sea levels indicate that the climate on the planet has changed and continues to change rapidly compared to the pre-industrial era (UN, 1992; IPCC, 2007, 2013, 2014; Alonso Oroza, 2011; Flannery, 2011; López Blanch, 2011; Raynal Villaseñor, 2011; Abatzoglou, DiMento, Doughman, & Nespor, 2014; Noble et al., 2014).
The Djerba Declaration (2003) and the Davos Declaration (2007) were two international conferences that recognized the complex yet close relationship between tourism and climate change. Both conferences concluded that climate change will bring about a series of consequences, predicting significant short-term changes in some tourist regions of the world, such as Western Europe, Central Europe, Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean, the northern and southeastern United States, Mexico, the Caribbean, China, and the small islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans (Ivanova, 2012).
According to the UNEP-WMO-WTO (2007), one of the economic activities that could be most affected is tourism due to increases in temperatures, the intensification of tropical storms, and the growing number of more intense precipitation and drought events. The effects of climate change will bring about drastic alterations that will mainly affect sun and beach tourism, the most demanded tourist modality in Mexico (Geiger Villalpando & Ibáñez, 2012). These effects could mean a reduction in summer or winter vacation periods, resulting in a redistribution of tourists to geographical areas with more favorable climates (Fraga et al., 2010).
Sun and beach tourism, the predominant tourism modality in much of the Caribbean, depends on favorable weather conditions (e.g., sunny days, approximate ambient temperature of 22-23°C, low incidence of rainfall, etc.). Recent studies and research affirm that the negative effects of climate change in tropical regions will decisively impact the medium and long-term development of tourist destinations.
López Blanch (2011) explains that if the sea level rises by approximately one meter, 5 million km2 of the world’s coasts would be flooded, a quarter of arable land would be lost, 200 million people would be left homeless, and several islands, some located in the Caribbean, would disappear and suffer from flooding.
In 2012, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) presented a report stating that “rising sea levels, stronger storms and hurricanes, and changes in currents are causing rapid erosion of beaches and flooding, destroying communities, infrastructure, hotels, and coastal developments” (p. 7).
Climate change can lead to the modification of the natural environment that attracts tourists, as well as endangering the health and integrity of visitors and inhabitants. Therefore, the Caribbean is identified as one of the most at-risk regions, mainly due to the increase in extreme weather events (e.g., hurricanes and tropical storms) and the future rise in sea levels. The effects on the coasts and seas of the Caribbean will be diverse; however, strong beach erosion is expected as a result of sea-level rise and an increase in the frequency of storms, floods, and other natural disasters (Campos Cámara, 2011). It is evident that the new climate conditions will affect the sector and tourist destinations since climate determines the duration and quality of tourist seasons and directly influences the number of tourist arrivals (Palafox Muñoz & Gutiérrez Torres, 2013).
In Mexico, the perspective of climate change and its possible impacts at the macroeconomic level has been addressed in a general manner. However, there are few studies that have documented the repercussions of climate change effects on the tourism sector (Moreno, López, & Marín, 2015).
In this context, Cuevas, Zizaldra, and Loera (2014) affirm that “the current tourism model requires fundamental changes to face the new dynamics in the activity” (p. 8). Thus, it is currently possible to identify at least nine research trends in tourism, including planning, development, and sustainability. This trend is one of the most interesting to address due to the future changes expected in tourist destinations caused by the effects of climate change.
Why Is It Important to Understand This Topic?
As observed, a large part of the effects of climate change will bring serious repercussions on biological cycles, directly harming the human population, affecting the subsistence capacity of communities with greater poverty, drastically reducing the economic potential of developed countries, and endangering the disappearance (due to sea-level rise) of coastal nations.
Climate change will entail more effects that will become evident over time. The effects will not be felt overnight; it will be a progressive change, giving humanity the opportunity to adapt to new environments; however, some other species will not have sufficient adaptation capacity. Estimates indicate that even if CO2 emissions were drastically reduced at present, there would still be irreversible changes and effects on the planet.
The effects of climate change imply modifications in the physical environment. The increase in sea level, the rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, and the disappearance of coral reefs will directly impact the tourist activity of Caribbean tourist destinations.
The possible environmental impacts resulting from the effects of climate change can manifest in different ways, one of them being through increased beach erosion, a phenomenon that can worsen over time.
In this regard, it is important to note that the actions implemented in Caribbean tourist destinations have not been sufficient, as they are limited to reclaiming part of the coastline through sand dredging without modifying or demolishing the constructions located on the coastal zone.
